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Managing Your Industry
Risk
by
Darrell Mockus of the Predictive Research Group.
With
every business venture, there are inherent risks that can affect its
success. Initially, companies address
these risks within the business plan.
A common problem is that risks noted at the beginning of a project or
investment are later forgotten. Venture
Capitalists carefully evaluate the risk exposure a company may have during an
investment. Engineers will weigh risks when designing a new technology. However, in many cases little formal risk
management is done afterwards. Not
only do risks change in intensity, new ones emerge while others disappear. As an industry or company develops, the risk
factors change and vulnerabilities emerge.
As a
venture capitalist or entrepreneur, it is important to take an active and
deliberate role in managing your risks as your company and industry
develop. Doing so ensures that your
strategy stays on track through business growth and industry change. Managing your risks on an ongoing basis is
just as important as considering them in the first place. Failure to do so may not only bring about a
crisis by surprise, but can also result in missed opportunities.
The
following is an introduction to managing industry risk.
Identify
the forces that affect your company and industry
Although
individuals are often aware of the forces that affect their company, many
rarely make a conscious effort at identifying and categorizing them. This is the first step toward managing risks
and is worth the time. Moreover, it is
important to conduct this exercise on a regular basis with the frequency
dictated by the volatility of your industry.
A
simple model to begin with is Michael Porter’s Five Competitive Forces. Expand on it as needed to
fit your business and industry. For
example:
Buyer Power
§
Emerging customer driven
trends
§
Consolidation of buyer market
Supplier Power
§
Supplier changes, industry
realignments
§
Mergers and acquisitions
§
Changes in buyer segments
served
New
Entrants (or changes with existing
entrants)
§
Acquisitions and mergers that
create new companies
§
Partnerships, relationships,
alliances that change a company’s competitive positioning
Threat of Substitutes
§
New disruptive technologies
§
Re-packaging of existing
products
Industry Rivalry
§
Existing competitors
§
New competitor strategies
(rule-changing moves)
§
Government regulation changes
This
undertaking will leave you with a sizable list of risks that can alter the
success of your company. Determine the
weight and severity of each of these items and prioritize them 1 to n. As resources are easily strained and
projects balloon out of control, it is best to concentrate on “high-risk” areas
that will have the greatest affect on your success. Risk management can be overwhelming. Start with the highest priority item and add other risks as your
efficiency and resources increase.
Controlling
Risk – Identify, Analyze, and Predict
Every company’s best
tool to manage its risks is Competitive Intelligence (CI). Competitive Intelligence is a
forward-looking decision support system that helps you identify, monitor and
manage your risks. It is the practice
of creating a system to pick up signals, apply an appropriate analysis
framework, and make sound judgments about the future. CI creates the advantage of strategic decision-making, and
greater control, instead of reactionary measures.
Detection
The first step is to
create an early warning system or “radar net”.
After you have identified the risks that affect your company, consider
the indicators that signal these risks.
For each of the most crucial risks, determine all possible
indicators. Correctly identified
indicators give you an important, even if subtle, forewarning of impending
change.
This task requires you
to think in a “cause and effect” way.
If you have trouble doing this, look at a past occurrence. Identify the signs that led up to that
event. How might these signs have been
detected beforehand? Apply this
thinking toward your current risks.
As a
common example, let us postulate that disruptive technologies are a major risk
factor for your company, or one of your portfolio companies. A disruptive or substitute technology is a
new product or service that can meet the same basic market requirements as an
existing product or service, but does it in an inherently different way. Over time, disruptive technologies can
displace incumbent products or services through lower cost, ease of use, etc.
Some
indicators of an impending disruptive technology are:
- Patents (newly filed and trends)
- Research (academic, funding)
- Technology Life Cycle Positioning (Base Technology
stage of Technology “S-Curve”)
- Bibliometric Indicators (published information, flow
of scholarly information)
- Industry Player Moves (Direct and indirect competitor
moves, parallel industry changes)
- Unanswered market needs (charting customer needs
against current product offerings)
Companies
will need to develop their CI systems to capture (and monitor) these
changes. This involves utilizing
internal resources and, often, the use of external CI professionals. The best method to prepare any company is
corporate wide training and awareness of competitive intelligence practices and
corporate goals.
The
majority of these efforts require human source intelligence collection.
Essentially, this involves targeted questioning of key people with access to
the pieces of information that make up the intelligence puzzle. Typically, this includes company personnel
at all levels that gather and feed intelligence into the corporate system. External consultants can provide additional
intelligence through the targeted questioning of key industry resources.
Analysis
Expert analysis depends
on choosing the proper framework to organize the data and collect signals. This
helps to form a clear picture of the competitive landscape. Management of disruptive technology, for
example, would require the simultaneous tracking of business conditions and
long-term technical trends.
Here
are some common Science and Technology CI analysis techniques used to analyze
disruptive technologies:
- Patent Analysis (Noting trends and patterns)
- Reverse Engineering Analysis
- Structural Modeling Analysis (Linear statistical modeling)
- Contextual Analysis (Datamining)
- Competitor Technical Profiling
- Trend Analysis (Using formulas such Bass or Harvey
Innovation Diffusion Models)
- Technological Substitution Model Analysis
(Fisher-Pry/Pearl-Reed Curve)
Judgment of future
events
The critical factor in
managing risks is the sound judgment of future events. You must apply the intelligence gathered to
the strategic decision making of your company.
This is often a joint venture between CI professionals and the key
corporate decision makers. Use the collected intelligence to make well-informed
strategic decisions now to put the organization in a better competitive
position in the future.
The
field of Science and Technology CI forecasting is too large and complex to
address here, but there are a number of techniques used to feed intelligence
into disruptive technology forecasting models.
The most common is the “Individual Expert Opinion.” However, this often falls short of
expectations. The Delphi Technique,
Lead User Analysis and Relevance Tree Models also make use of judgmental
forecasting techniques but are more structured and advanced. Forecasting by Analogy uses historical data
and current intelligence to draw analogies.
Trend Extrapolation also makes use of analogy comparisons by noting the
frequent pattern for technologies with a known natural upper limit. Alternatively, Scenario Modeling can be used
explore other developments where the future might significantly deviate from
current trends. Precursor Correlation
methods plot research and development versus commercial production timeframes.
The method you choose depends on your industry,
intelligence needs and available information.
The key is to make the most use of the information and intelligence you
have already gathered. Choosing the right
model will give you the best possible vision of future events.
Summary
Managing industry risk is no longer an option but a
requirement for a company to stay viable and competitive. Relying on guesses, unqualified information
and assumptions to make strategic decisions proves to be costly when strategies
created fall short of expectations and fail to meet industry demands. Last minute strategy changes also
substantiate the need for risk management through lost opportunities and wasted
resources.
To manage risk successfully
requires getting beyond the less sophisticated and ad hoc methods commonly
used. It was once believed that a few
calls to known contacts in the industry would provide all the needed
information about a situation. Agnes Imregh,
VP of Marketing at LuxN notes, “Companies rely on the connections and networks
of their board members - industry insiders or venture capital investors - only
to find that those insiders all shared the same erroneous beliefs. That's how a bubble happens - collectively
shared but poorly examined assumptions."
Biased views, opinions, and
unqualified gossip among colleagues can be misleading and costly. With global competition, volatile
marketplaces, mergers, acquisitions, and changing technical landscapes, an
entirely informal approach not only proves to be ineffective but foolhardy. Simply reading industry publications or
commonly available market research reports from the large consulting firms does
not provide any competitive advantage when everybody is reading the same
commentary.
Unless
a conscious effort is made to manage risks through organized intelligence, your
company or investment relies on tactical fire fighting instead of building an
innovative strategy that anticipates future events. The market is currently full of companies with one foot already
in the grave trying to re-invent themselves.
What will distinguish survivors is the employment of strategies that
change with the environment. Proactive
risk management allows you to compensate for industry changes to keep your
company on top.